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Russian intrusion of Ukraine will make new difficulties at home for Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin

Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine is barely two days old and it's still far too soon to know precisely what he plans from a military perspective.  

Is this a shock and awe campaign? Will he really seek to occupy large Ukrainian cities?

We don't know yet.  

Ukraine may be outgunned but its forces are going to fight.     

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This is not Crimea in 2014, when Russian forces encountered little resistance.

This isn't Georgia in 2008, when fewer than 100 Russian soldiers were killed. 

Russian soldiers are going to die in this invasion. Potentially in large numbers if Mr Putin plans to occupy large parts of the country.

And the Kremlin is acutely aware that will be a problem at home.

Already images are emerging of what appear to be captured Russian troops. There's been no acknowledgement from Moscow, but they are not the hardened combat veterans of Crimea or Syria.

They're kids, in their late teens or early 20s.

There have been numerous reports that among the leading invasion force there are conscripts. Some may have been in the Russian army for only a few months.

None of this seems to be slowing Russia's advance. But over the next weeks and months, as young Russians are killed fighting in Ukraine, it will be a challenge for the Kremlin.


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